Dubai retail real estate market 2025 report

Dubai retail real estate market reached AED4.6 billion in 2025 after a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, driven by rising off-plan transactions.

Cavendish Maxwell reports that total retail sales value climbed to AED4.6 billion in 2025 while transaction volumes reached about 1,450, a 7.6% increase on 2024. The advisory group also notes that more than half of those 1,450 sales were in the off-plan sector, making pre-completion deals central to this market shift.

Off-plan activity has been the engine of growth: Cavendish Maxwell records off-plan transactions rising from 79 in 2021 to nearly 740 in 2025, a more than 830% increase over five years. That concentration changes liquidity and delivery risk for investors and operators across established retail hubs and new mixed-use developments.

Dubai retail sales value reached AED4.6 billion in 2025, with roughly 1,450 transactions recorded, according to Cavendish Maxwell.

Cavendish Maxwell’s figures show a nearly 50% year-on-year rise in retail sales value to AED4.6 billion, and transaction volumes rose 7.6% to about 1,450 deals. The report highlights that more than half of those transactions came from the off-plan sector, where nearly 740 sales were secured in 2025. Those counts mean off-plan deals now represent the single largest slice by transaction count in the retail sales mix.

The headline numbers mask concentration risk: when more than half of sales are off-plan, valuations and near-term cash flows depend on delivery schedules and developer stability. Investors should treat the AED4.6 billion figure as a market-wide total while analysing individual assets for completion timelines, tenant demand, and potential short-term resale or leasing pressure.

Off-plan retail transactions grew dramatically: Cavendish Maxwell reports nearly 740 off-plan sales in 2025 versus 79 in 2021, an increase exceeding 830% over five years.

That surge means off-plan deals now account for more than half of the 1,450 total retail transactions recorded in 2025. With off-plan sales at nearly 740, the on-plan or completed-market transactions can be derived at roughly 710 in 2025. The concentration in pre-completion purchases shifts where new retail supply and leasing demand will be focused when projects complete and retail space hits the market.

Rapid off-plan growth brings practical implications: developers will determine how quickly new retail floorspace comes online, and investors must track project delivery schedules and escrow protections. High off-plan volumes can push short-term pricing volatility if multiple projects complete close together and compete for the same tenant demand.

The rise in off-plan retail means investors must weigh delivery timing and developer credit alongside headline returns, because nearly 740 off-plan deals in 2025 change risk profiles in the market.

Investors who focus only on headline value may overlook the fact that over half of the 1,450 transactions were pre-completion. Cavendish Maxwell’s data shows off-plan volume jumped from 79 in 2021 to nearly 740 in 2025, so attention to escrow, construction milestones, and handover schedules is essential. That shift can affect near-term yield expectations and resale liquidity for retail lots, kiosks, and F&B units.

Practical investor actions include prioritising projects with clear escrow protection, staged handovers, and strong pre-lease interest from reputable tenants. Monitor developer delivery cadence and cluster completions to avoid buying into periods when multiple schemes release retail stock simultaneously and depress initial rents.

• Focus on escrowed projects and clear milestone schedules
• Check pre-leasing levels to reduce vacancy risk at handover
• Avoid over-concentration in a single developer or district

Near-term outlook is cautiously optimistic on value but sensitive to delivery timing because AED4.6 billion in sales was concentrated in off-plan activity in 2025.

Cavendish Maxwell’s numbers show a market where transaction value rose nearly 50% to AED4.6 billion while volumes increased 7.6% to around 1,450 deals. The risk to that positive narrative is clustered completions: nearly 740 off-plan transactions may translate to a wave of new retail supply when projects deliver, pressuring initial rents and resale pricing. Investors and lenders should model staggered completion scenarios.

Watch developer balance sheets, project milestone transparency, and tenant demand in specific districts. The headline AED4.6 billion outcome signals strong demand, yet short-term pricing and yield dynamics will depend on how and when the nearly 740 off-plan units move from contract to fully operational retail spaces.

Cavendish Maxwell’s data frames 2025 as a turning point: Dubai retail sales value climbed to AED4.6 billion and transactions reached about 1,450, with nearly 740 off-plan deals. The core takeaway is that strong demand now coexists with delivery and concentration risk, so outcomes will depend on developer execution and the timing of new retail supply.